This summer, the University of Chicago Center for Chronic Disease Research and Policy (CDRP) will host the Mt. Hood Diabetes Challenge, a conference for researchers and policy analysts working in health economics and disease simulation modeling in the field of diabetes.
The conference will be held June 23-25, its first return to the United States since a 2016 meeting at Stanford University. This is the second time the University of Chicago has hosted the meeting.
This year’s conference, focused on quantifying the benefits and cost-effectiveness of weight reduction interventions, features plenary lectures by Jonathan Ozik and Eric Polley from UChicago and Talitha Feenstra of Gronigen University on public design of simulation models and new approaches to modeling. For the first time, the conference will expand beyond diabetes to pose additional challenges on osteoarthritis and smoking.
The conference began in 1999 with two modeling groups that met at Timberline Lodge, halfway up Oregon’s Mt. Hood. The Mt. Hood Diabetes Challenge now assembles an international group of researchers every other year to compare results from standardized series of simulation challenges. The goal of the challenge is to refine health economics simulation models that are used to evaluate and advise upon the cost-effectiveness of treatments, policies, and programs. Each meeting brings participants together to improve disease modeling through rigorous comparison, shared methodologies, and open scientific dialogue.
All participating groups receive a set of instructions defining the simulation scenario. They then independently implement it using their own models, without knowledge of others’ results. The conference offers the opportunity to compare outcomes—a process that not only refines model accuracy but also reveals crucial insights into structural uncertainty, the differences in results due to how a model is designed and implemented.
“Some models will perform better, and we all learn from that,” said Philip Clarke, Professor of Health Economics and Director of the Health Economics Research Centre at Oxford University, who has been involved with Mt. Hood since the early 2000s and has chaired the committee since 2010. “Different assumptions, data sources, and even geographic context (like the UK vs. the US vs. China) can lead to varied results. It’s critical for decision-making to understand that variability, not just to aim for one ‘correct’ answer.”
Diabetes, a progressive disease that unfolds over decades, presents unique challenges for healthcare decision-making. Simulation models allow researchers to project long-term outcomes based on short-term interventions—such as changes in blood glucose or blood pressure—without waiting decades for real-world data.
“Weight reduction is a major focus this year,” Clarke said. “There’s a surge in new technologies and drugs, but they’re expensive. Modeling can help us understand the trade-offs and guide better policy decisions.”
These regular meetings have been a touchstone for health economics simulation methodologies as they have evolved over the decades. “In some ways, we were ahead of the curve in 1999,” Clarke said. “Back then, many used simpler models—like Markov models or single-outcome risk models. We were already building complex models with multiple outcomes. Since then, models have gotten slightly more complex, but the big change on the horizon is the potential of machine learning and AI. Those techniques haven’t yet been fully adopted in health economics, but they’re coming, and it’s something Mt. Hood is thinking about.”
CDRP director Elbert Huang, Professor of Medicine and Public Health Sciences at UChicago has been a member of the Mt. Hood planning committee several times since the University first hosted the meeting in 2007. “The CDRP is thrilled to host the 2025 Mt. Hood Diabetes Challenge,” Huang said. “It’s a unique opportunity for an international perspective on potential diabetes treatment outcomes and an incredible occasion to connect with a global community of researchers.”
For more information on the conference and to register, visit https://www.mthooddiabeteschallenge.com/
